FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
The Future of the US Dollar
Every few years, someone declares the dollar is finished. Debt too high, deficits unsustainable, China rising, etc. I've heard some version of this for the past decade, and I want to walk through what the data shows, because I think a lot of clients are genuinely worried right now about the future of the US dollar and their investments.
The dollar has real, legitimate challenges. But it is not losing its grip on global finance, and the most likely alternatives don't hold up when you look at the data…
Market Leadership Changing Hands
For the last couple of years, a small handful of companies have done most of the heavy lifting in the stock market. The hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc.), the massive cloud and software companies that have been pouring money into AI infrastructure, pushed the market forward.
Recently, there has been a shift in market leadership, with strong returns coming from value stocks, particularly the semiconductor stocks that actually make the physical chips powering all the AI investments…
Missing IPOs Is Okay
SpaceX has had quite an exciting first few weeks of trading. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) started trading as an initial public offering (IPO) on June 10th and shot up nearly 40% in just a few days, hitting roughly $200 before pulling back sharply. As of June 26th, the stock sits around $153. If you bought at the peak, you're already down more than 20% in under two weeks. If you bought at the open, you’ve roundtripped.
What Markets Do During Geopolitical Crises
One of the hardest things for investors to do during geopolitical uncertainty is nothing. When conflict breaks out, the instinct is to act. Move to cash. Wait it out. Come back when things feel safer. It's a completely understandable reaction.
Here's what the data actually shows. Since 1941, the S&P 500 has endured World War II, Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf War, 9/11, Iraq, and more than a dozen other military engagements. In the year following each of those conflicts, the average return was +11%. Over five years, +94%. Over twenty years, +685%…
10-Year Market Outlook
Because of the variability of stock market returns in the short run, I steer clients away from short-term tactical changes to their portfolio and prefer to rely on the weighty evidence of history, along with long-term thematic trends in the market.
While no one has consistently and accurately predicted what the stock market is about to do, several well-respected firms provide long-term outlooks that have proven to be more accurate than short-term predictions.
Below are the 2026 10+ year estimates…
Sometimes, Markets Are Irrational
One of the hardest things for investors to accept is that markets don’t always make sense, at least not in the short term.
Here’s a good example. Recently, small-cap companies with negative earnings have outperformed those with positive earnings…