One of the hardest things for investors to do during geopolitical uncertainty is nothing. When conflict breaks out, the instinct is to act. Move to cash. Wait it out. Come back when things feel safer. It's a completely understandable reaction.

Here's what the data actually shows. Since 1941, the S&P 500 has endured World War II, Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf War, 9/11, Iraq, and more than a dozen other military engagements. In the year following each of those conflicts, the average return was +11%. Over five years, +94%. Over twenty years, +685%…

Because of the variability of stock market returns in the short run, I steer clients away from short-term tactical changes to their portfolio and prefer to rely on the weighty evidence of history, along with long-term thematic trends in the market.

While no one has consistently and accurately predicted what the stock market is about to do, several well-respected firms provide long-term outlooks that have proven to be more accurate than short-term predictions.  

Below are the 2026 10+ year estimates…

One of the hardest things for investors to accept is that markets don’t always make sense, at least not in the short term.

Here’s a good example. Recently, small-cap companies with negative earnings have outperformed those with positive earnings…

After more than a decade of U.S. stock dominance, international stocks outperformed U.S. stocks last year. 

That has naturally investors to wonder “Did we miss it?” 

Even after a period of international outperformance, U.S. stocks remain historically expensive relative to international stocks, and the valuation gap between the two is still unusually wide…

With markets once again touching all-time highs, it’s natural for investors to feel uneasy. I’ve had several recent conversations with clients expressing concern that stocks are “too expensive.” That’s understandable with valuations today more than a standard deviation above their long-term averages…

With the stock market once again at all-time highs, clients who have cash to invest have the added mental weight of investing money after a long stretch of market growth. 

Should they buy after a dip? Wait for a correction? Hold cash until the "perfect" entry point? Over the long run, timing matters surprisingly little compared to simply staying invested…