FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
10-Year Market Outlook
Because of the variability of stock market returns in the short run, I steer clients away from short-term tactical changes to their portfolio and prefer to rely on the weighty evidence of history, along with long-term thematic trends in the market.
While no one has consistently and accurately predicted what the stock market is about to do, several well-respected firms provide long-term outlooks that have proven to be more accurate than short-term predictions.
Below are the 2026 10+ year estimates…
Sometimes, Markets Are Irrational
One of the hardest things for investors to accept is that markets don’t always make sense, at least not in the short term.
Here’s a good example. Recently, small-cap companies with negative earnings have outperformed those with positive earnings…
Home Sales Are Finally Picking Back Up
Real estate plays a significant role in the economy. It affects homeowners, renters, buyers, and sellers. So, it’s worth paying attention to signs of improvement.
After a long stretch of sluggish activity, there are early indications that the housing market may be finding its footing again. Most recently, home sales rose meaningfully, marking the strongest reading in nearly three years…
International Stocks Still Cheap Relative to the U.S.
After more than a decade of U.S. stock dominance, international stocks outperformed U.S. stocks last year.
That has naturally investors to wonder “Did we miss it?”
Even after a period of international outperformance, U.S. stocks remain historically expensive relative to international stocks, and the valuation gap between the two is still unusually wide…
The Economy Is Better Than Everyone Thinks
Last week I came across this data point. Simply asked “How do you perceive your situation now and in the future,” 1/3 of American’s reported saying “I’m thriving.” I found this shockingly high. Only 7% said they were “suffering.”
Three Fascinating Books I Read This Year
This year looked a little different on the reading front. With a newborn at home, my “books read” mainly came in the form of audiobooks on walks around the neighborhood and in the car on the way to work. It wasn’t a big reading year, but there were still a few that really stuck with me…