FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
The Future of the US Dollar
Every few years, someone declares the dollar is finished. Debt too high, deficits unsustainable, China rising, etc. I've heard some version of this for the past decade, and I want to walk through what the data shows, because I think a lot of clients are genuinely worried right now about the future of the US dollar and their investments.
The dollar has real, legitimate challenges. But it is not losing its grip on global finance, and the most likely alternatives don't hold up when you look at the data…
How Social Media Algorithms Are Affecting Sentiment
Take a look at that chart above for a moment. The red line is the S&P 500. It has been steadily climbing for over a decade. The blue line is consumer sentiment, which measures how people feel about the economy. It peaked around 2019 and then, starting in 2020, it fell off a cliff and never came back.
This gap between the stock market returns and consumer sentiment is unprecedented. Typically, sentiment follows the stock market and is a pretty good contrarian indicator (when sentiment is low, it is often a good time to buy)…
Teaching Kids That Money Is Finite
If your children or grandchildren never feel the sting of running out of money, will they ever learn to manage it? For families with wealth, this is one of the more underappreciated challenges in raising up the next generation. I’ve seen this firsthand from many clients who express concerns that their grandchildren don’t seem to share the same financial values they do…
How Many Hours Should Your Teen Really Work?
Most clients I’ve met with have two reactions when their teen child or grandchild lands a job. The first is pride, and the second is worry about time management and homework.
How much work is too little? Too much? It turns out, this question has been researched. I recently came across this article from The University of Minnesota and a few other institutions that have followed this topic for decades…
Home Sales Are Finally Picking Back Up
Real estate plays a significant role in the economy. It affects homeowners, renters, buyers, and sellers. So, it’s worth paying attention to signs of improvement.
After a long stretch of sluggish activity, there are early indications that the housing market may be finding its footing again. Most recently, home sales rose meaningfully, marking the strongest reading in nearly three years…
The Economy Is Better Than Everyone Thinks
Last week I came across this data point. Simply asked “How do you perceive your situation now and in the future,” 1/3 of American’s reported saying “I’m thriving.” I found this shockingly high. Only 7% said they were “suffering.”