FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
Historical Returns After a Stock Market Selloff
Markets are on edge again, this time reacting to a fresh round of tariff headlines and fears of a broader global trade war. Stocks have stumbled into correction territory, with the S&P 500 now down more than 15% from recent highs. For many investors, the question is the same as always: Is this the start of something bigger—or a setup for a rebound?
While every market selloff comes with its own set of headlines and fears, history gives us a clear lens to view what often comes next.
Corrections of this size are unsettling. They create the sense that something is broken. But the data tells a consistent story: sharp declines often lead to strong forward returns. Not immediately, but in time.
Bonds – A Lone Bright Spot
The past week has been one of the most volatile on record. The stock market has been in freefall following the sweeping tariff announcement last Wednesday. Every diversified investor, whether aggressive or conservative, that is exposed to some stock allocation is down. It’s during moments like these that you need diversification to work. And it is.
However, the past few years have been historically bad for bond investors, with rising interest rates resulting in a negative total return over five years…
Repairing an Old Car vs. Buying New
Some common phrases I hear when people buy a new car include variations of: “It was more expensive to repair than to buy new,” or “The repair cost more than the car.”
I’m going to debunk these claims. But before I do, let me say this—if you can afford a new car, go for it! New cars are great. They reduce stress, eliminate hassle, and, for some, bring real enjoyment. But it’s rarely an economical choice.
To be fair, I’m writing this while waiting for our old Toyota Highlander to finish its 100,000-mile service, plus some extra repairs—costing more than $1,300. So, maybe I’m just trying to make myself feel better about the expense…
How to Protect Against Stagflation – Lessons from History
Recent concerns about a new era of stagflation in the U.S. have emerged due to escalating tariff wars. If the tariff war expands and companies are left paying higher prices for parts, it could create an environment where growth slows as consumers are less willing to buy at higher prices, while inflation remains as input costs all continue to rise.
While it’s too early to sound the alarm, looking back at the painful period of stagflation from 1973 to 1982 provides critical insights about how investors can protect themselves if it gets worse. ..
Some Thoughts on the Recent Market Volatility
Last Tuesday, March 11th, the S&P 500 hit the official “correction” level midday - 10% off the all-time highs set just 20 days earlier on February 19th. It was the 5th fastest 10% decline in the past 75 years, driven primarily by tariff uncertainty.
Below are a few thoughts I’ve been thinking about for the past few weeks. As always, I’ve done my best to be as apolitical as possible…
Corrected 1099s - Why You Should Wait to File
A 1099 form reports income from sources such as dividends, interest, and capital gains. Brokerage firms provide these documents based on the information they receive from mutual funds, ETFs, and other investment vehicles.
As tax season approaches, many investors receive their 1099 forms early in the year and feel the urge to file as soon as possible. However, financial institutions often issue corrected versions. If you receive one of these corrected 1099s and have already filed, an amendment to your tax return may be needed…