FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
How Do You Hedge AI Bubble Risk?
Two clients asked me a version of the same question over the past few weeks, so I wanted to share our conversation with you all. Two weeks ago, the 10-year Treasury reached a multi-decade high of over 5.3%, then reversed and finished the week at 5.1%. What turned it around had nothing to do with inflation. Yields fell because of concerns about whether there will be enough revenue from the AI buildout to justify the spend. As this happened, long-term Treasuries had their best week in over a year. That week was a small preview of how hedging risk works.
A big reason long rates are so high is the borrowing behind the AI buildout. If demand for bonds is limited, yields have to rise as supply increases for demand to follow. While nothing is guaranteed, it’s reasonable to think that if the AI trade breaks, growth expectations will come down, the Fed gets room to cut, and yields fall.
A good hedge might be to own assets that benefit when rates fall: bonds, value stocks, international, real estate, among others…
Three Medicare Scams to Watch For
Medicare open enrollment runs October 15 through December 7, and if you are eligible for Medicare, you’ve probably started receiving calls for insurance agents trying to get you to switch. Criminals also know this is the one stretch of the year when a call about your Medicare plan sounds like it might be legitimate.
Here are a few of the scams I’ve heard about directly from clients or other advisors…
Where Is All The AI Spending Going?
Recently, I was meeting with a client who asked how sustainable the growth of the market is, and also about the earnings growth of these companies. The largest companies in the market (often referred to as the hyperscalers) are spending an enormous amount building out AI infrastructure. Investors rightfully want to know if these investments are well-spent money. Apollo published a chart recently that gets at this subject better than anything else I've seen.
The chart tracks the hyperscalers’ operating cash flow, which is the actual cash the business throws off before big investments. It was at $600 billion in 2025, and consensus expects that to reach roughly $2 trillion by 2030…
Why Retirees Should Lift Weights
A while back, I wrote a piece on Increasing Healthspan and Lifespan in Retirement, built around Peter Attia's idea of the Centenarian Decathlon. It drew a lot of replies, which made me think many people planning for a long retirement are quietly wondering whether they will be in shape to enjoy it.
One of the main components of that article was strength training. The idea of weight training and how it affects bone mineral density is not new to me, partly because my wife, Emily, often jokes that she’s working on her bones at the gym. But a few weeks ago, I came across a picture that’s been hard to get out of my head…
Direct Indexing Explained
While most investors focus on their gross return (the number on your statement or custodial website), the most important number is your net after-tax return. If two investments earn the same rate of return but one is taxed at a higher rate, we know who is coming out ahead. For the right client, direct indexing can significantly improve after-tax returns.
Typically, when you buy an index fund, you own one investment, and inside it are several hundred companies. Direct indexing gives you those same companies, except you own the shares themselves, weighted so the whole thing behaves like the index. On your statement, you will see each stock you own (i.e Apple, McDonalds, etc)…
Some Scares Turn Into Market Crashes and Others Don't
As the stock market stays near all-time highs, it’s normal to feel like a market downturn is around the corner. There are always new fears, some warranted and others not so much.
Right now, it’s a mixture of unsustainable earnings, scary AI scenarios, and unsustainable government debt. Staying up to date on all those concerns can help you understand what investors are thinking, but it doesn’t tell you what to do about it (hold steady or sell) or when to do it (now or later)…