FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
10-Year Market Outlook
Because of the variability of stock market returns in the short run, I steer clients away from short-term tactical changes to their portfolio and prefer to rely on the weighty evidence of history, along with long-term thematic trends in the market.
While no one has consistently and accurately predicted what the stock market is about to do, several well-respected firms provide long-term outlooks that have proven to be more accurate than short-term predictions.
Below are the 2024 10+ year estimates…
Why People Were Happier in the 1950s
In the 1950s, new home builds were roughly 1/3 the size of current new home builds, and when families left those homes for vacation, they camped more often than they stayed in hotels. The real GDP per person was ¼ of what is it today, which means the US produces 4x as much as we did in the 50s even after adjusting for inflation. This has resulted in countless luxuries that we consider necessities today. People in the 1950s could hardly imagine a color TV, but I’m frustrated when there is a one-second lag on the live football game I’m streaming from a smartphone.
A 2017 report found that peak happiness in the UK and other developed economies was the year 1957. Why then were the 1950s a happier time if they had so much less?
A Fun Client Story About Poorly Timing the Market
Recently as I was reviewing a new client’s investment portfolio, I noticed a sizable position in Microsoft stock (this is not a recommendation to buy or sell). I looked at the “tax lots,” which show when the stock was purchased, and I saw January 17th, 2000. I was shocked.
As most investors know, 2000 was the beginning of one of the biggest market meltdowns of all time, known as the Dot-com bubble. Not only that but after doing a quick search, Microsoft stock peaked in January of 2000. It was obvious they had got caught up in the internet stock craze as many investors did…
Why I’m Holding Onto My I-Bonds
In January 2022 and January 2023, I purchased I-bonds to serve as a replacement for part of our family’s cash savings. Back in 2022 when I-bond rates were over 7%, I wrote about how if you had cash that you could afford to tie up for a year, I-bonds were a good option. Rates then peaked in the middle of 2022 at nearly 10% before starting to come back down. Last year around this time, I wrote about how I still thought I-bonds offered a reasonable rate over alternatives.
During 2023, inflation came down and I-bond rates that are linked to inflation continued to go down. Currently, rates are sitting at 5.27%. I’ve had a few clients ask if they should go ahead and cash out their bonds from the past few years now that rates have gone down…
Most-Read Blog Posts From 2023
Happy New Year! Looking back on last year, I wanted to share a few of the most-read blog posts in case you missed them.
HOW BEING PRESENT INCREASES HAPPINESS IN RETIREMENT…
Three Fascinating Books I Read This Year
As the year ends, I wanted to take a moment to thank you all for your continued support! If you have a friend or family member that you think might benefit from these posts, they can subscribe here or on the home page of my blog's website, Financial Field Notes.
Here are three books that I enjoyed this past year…